Home arrow Latest News arrow Revenue forecast down slightly; $200 million K-12 trigger ‘on cusp’
Revenue forecast down slightly; $200 million K-12 trigger ‘on cusp’ Print E-mail

The December state revenue forecast, released this morning by the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, is down slightly compared to the September forecast, leaving state reserves at $312.4 million – “right on the cusp,” according to Senior Economist Josh Harwood, of the state’s having sufficient resources to transfer an anticipated $200 million in funding to schools.  That transfer, which would be triggered if state reserves stand at $300 million or more in June, would result in K-12 biennial funding of $6.0 billion for 2009-11, rather than the $5.8 billion currently allocated.

Harwood characterized the revenue forecast as “flat,” with projected state general fund ($43.5 million) and lottery ($14.8 million) resources declining by $58.3 million since September.  This loss is mitigated by reduced interest rates and anticipated administrative actions, resulting in a net decline of $15.5 million in the state’s forecasted general fund ending balance and $7.7 million in the state’s forecasted reserve balance.

Going forward, Harwood said, the “greatest risk” to upcoming state revenue forecasts comes from the outcome of the January 26 election on Measures 66 & 67.  The $733 million in revenue expected to be generated by those measures is already included in the state’s 2009-11 budget.

State Economist Tom Pitiowsky said that the recession in Oregon appears to have ended, and he projected mild job growth in the second quarter of 2010.  “Bottom line,” he said, “we’re starting to see signs that recovery is taking place.”

Upcoming state revenue forecasts are scheduled for March and June.  The legislature will use the March forecast during the February supplemental session, and the June forecast will determine how much (if any) of the $200 million transfer schools will receive.

This page was last updated on Thursday, December 03, 2009 .